NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season

Forecasters at the Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45 percent (up from 30 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued on August 8, 2019. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 35 percent down from 40 percent in May and the chance of a below-normal season has dropped from 30 percent to 20 percent.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season extends from June 1 to November 30.

Updated NOAA prediction for August is calling for a 70-percent likelihood of:

·       10 to 17 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) (prediction in May 9 to 15)

·       5 to 9 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph higher) (prediction in May 4 to 8)

·       2 to 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher) - No change from prediction in May

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.  

Factors considered in the updated predictions:

1.    The current El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has ended and neutral conditions have returned. This is a departure from the consideration in May when El Nino was projected to continue. El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity and given that it is no longer present, a busier season could well be the outcome.

2.     The conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Names

As always, the key message is to be prepared. Think ahead and keep in mind the hazards that are likely to affect you throughout the season including flooding, landslides, rock falls and high winds.

The Meteorological Service encourages the public, where possible, to increase their knowledge on weather related terms and warning messages by visiting the website at http://weather.gov.dm/resources/common-forecast-terms-and-weather-systems or call the office at 449-1752.

Stay informed at all times by listening to warnings and other information provided by trusted and designated authorities.

Remember it only takes one so always be prepared!!!