The Atlantic Hurricane Season extends from June 1 to November 30 and the prediction for this year is that a near-normal season is most likely. Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is predicting a 70-percent likelihood of:
- 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 4 to 8 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher)
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
This year there are competing climate factors to consider. The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. However, countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and an enhanced West African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity.
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Names
|
Lorenzo |
Barry |
Melissa |
Chantal |
Nestor |
Dorian |
Olga |
Erin |
Pablo |
Fernand |
Rebekah |
Gabrielle |
Sebastien |
Humberto |
Tanya |
Imelda |
Van |
Jerry |
Wendy |
Karen |
The 2018 hurricane season was relatively quiet for the island of Dominica. This should in no way encourage complacency among the populace as the island continues to recover from the devastating 2017 impact. Think ahead and keep in mind the hazards that are likely to affect you throughout the season including flooding, landslides, rock falls and high winds.
The Meteorological Service encourages the public, where possible, to increase their knowledge on weather related terms and warning messages by visiting the website at http://weather.gov.dm/resources/common-forecast-terms-and-weather-systems or call the office at 449-1752.
Stay informed at all times by listening to warnings and other information provided by trusted and designated authorities. Remember it only takes one so always be prepared!!!