(767) 447 5555Public Notice
Date: Tuesday, January 31, 2012 @ 12:00 AM local time
2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Updated August 22nd 2011
Issued by the Dominica Meteorological Service
The Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st and ends on November 30th. Dominica, like the other islands in the Caribbean lies in the hurricane path making us very vulnerable.
Most hurricanes develop from tropical waves which originate from the coast of Africa and propagate across the Atlantic Ocean. On average, approximately sixty (60) tropical waves cross the Atlantic Ocean and make their way towards the Caribbean every year.
The hazards associated with hurricanes are storms surge, strong winds, torrential rainfall which leads to floods/ landslides. Every year you hear of the hurricane season outlooks by various scientists who predict how many named storms and hurricanes are expected in the upcoming season. These forecasts are based on probabilities and the analysis of historical data. They are intended to provide an estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.
Well known forecaster; Dr. William gray in his April 6th 2011 release is predicting an above average Atlantic Hurricane Season with sixteen (16) named storms and nine (9) hurricanes of which five (5) will become major hurricanes ( category 3 to 5).
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in its’ release on August 4th predicts 14 to 19 named storms, 7 to 12 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. Compared to the May 19th predictions, there is a higher likelihood (85% chance) that the 2011 season will be above normal.
On average, 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes develops every season. This year it is predicted that the season will exceed the average number making it a very active season.
Remember; it is not how active a season is that matters but if we are hit. It only takes one storm to impact our island to make it a real bad year and this can happen in any season. You do not need the seasonal outlook to decide if you should get prepared. All citizens should do their part. Be prepared this hurricane season.
Here are the names of the storms for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARLENE- AR LEEN LEE- LEE
BRET- BRET MARIA- MUH REE- UH
CINDY- SIN- DEE NATE- NAIT
DON- DAHN OPHELIA- O FEEL- YA
EMILY- EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE- FEE LEEP-
FRANKLIN- FRANK- LIN RINA- REE- NUH
GERT- GERT SEAN- SHAWN
HARVEY- HAR- VEE TAMMY- TAM- EE
IRENE- EYE REEN- VINCE- VINSS
JOSE- HO ZAY- WHITNEY- WHIT- NEE
KATIA- KA TEE- AH