2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction- Above normal season expected.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season extends from June 1 to November 30 and the prediction for this year is that an above normal season is most likely. In its May 21st forecast, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season with 70 percent confidence.

NOAA is predicting a 70-percent likelihood of:

-       13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)

-       6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)

-       3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher)

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.  

This year, the climatic factors driving the forecast are as follows:

1.     The El Nino which suppress the intensity of the hurricane season is not expected this summer.  

2.     Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures which fuels tropical cyclone development are expected to persist in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and

3.     Favorable winds over West Africa.


All of these favors increased hurricane activity.

Consistent with the past 5 years, the 2020 season began ahead of the official June 1st start with the development of tropical storm Arthur on Saturday May 16th. On Tuesday May 19th, Arthur became post tropical and the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane center (NHC).


   2020 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names
























The 2019 hurricane season was above normal, however, it was relatively quiet for Dominica. This should in no way encourage complacency among the populace as the island continues to recover from the devastating 2017 impact of category five Hurricane Maria.

With the hurricane season upon us, the nation is also dealing with a health and physical safety situation combating the recent challenges posed by the covid-19 pandemic. Residents must continue to follow the safety protocols established.

As always, the key message is to be prepared. Think ahead and keep in mind the hazards that are likely to affect you throughout the season including flooding, landslides, rock falls, rough seas and high winds and the threat of covid-19. Know your vulnerability!

The Meteorological Service encourages the public, where possible, to increase their knowledge on weather related terms and warning messages by visiting the website at http://weather.gov.dm/resources/common-forecast-terms-and-weather-systems 

or call the office at 449-1752 or 6114490. Our Facebook page is Dominica Met.


Stay informed at all times by listening to warnings and other information provided by trusted and designated authorities.

Remember it only takes one, always be prepared!!! Prepare and pray for the best.