Date of Issue: July 7, 2022

Forecast:

• Rainfall
  • There is some confidence that rainfall accumulation is likely to be as high as usual as we move into the heart of the wet season
  • On average, hurricane season activity increases during this period coming to a peak in September
  • A likely increase in the number of wet days and 7-day wet spells which may increase flood potential across the island
  • A likely increase in 3-day extreme wet spells, which may increase the chance (moderate to high) of flash floods and associated hazards particularly towards September
  • These conditions are likely to persist into the October through December
  • At this time, there is no concern for drought conditions
• Temperature
  • The region is well into the heat season
  • Day and night-time temperatures are likely to be as warm as usual
  • Heat stress is likely to increase due to higher humidity and lighter winds

Influencing Factors

• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  • Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal (-0.6°C); La Niña conditions exist
  • Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate that La Niña may persist into October-November-December (OND) (60-55% confidence)
  • Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity during the wet season. La Niña also increases the chance of tropical cyclone formation
• Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea
  • Recent observations: Warmer than usual SSTs persisted to 1°C above average around the northern section of the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic in May. Elsewhere in the Caribbean SSTs were near normal
  • Expected conditions: Models are forecasting SST to maintain anomalously warm (0.5-1°C above average) around the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic
  • Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall

See table below with Climatological Normal/Averages