Date of Issue: March 30th 2022

Forecast

• Rainfall
  • Some uncertainty continues to exist in the rainfall and wet days forecast during a seasonal transition period; from the dry season to the wet season
  • Rainfall accumulation for AMJ is likely to be normal to below normal
  • A slight increase in the frequency of wet days and wet spells is likely towards the end of AMJ as the rainy season begins; though models are suggesting less than usual rainfall from July to August
  • There is little concern for extreme wet spells which could result in flash floods
  • At most, three 7-day dry spells are possible during the season and two 10-day dry spells
  • Concern remains for possible drought-like conditions in parts of the country by the end of June 2022
• Temperature
  • Temperatures will gradually warm into May, which marks the start of the Caribbean Heat Season
  • Night-time minimum and daytime maximum temperatures are likely to be as warm as usual
  • Bush fire potential is expected to peak in May

Influencing Factors

1. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
   • Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal (-0.7°C); weak La Niña persists
   • Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate that La Niña conditions in AMJ (80-65% confidence) may persist into JJA (50-45% confidence) or ENSO neutral phase may emerge
   • Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity in AMJ and JAS, except in the northern Caribbean where it tilts the odds to less rainfall. ENSO neutral offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in the Caribbean
2. Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea
   • Recent observations: Warmer than usual SSTs persisted to 1°C above average around the northern section of the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic in February. Elsewhere in the Caribbean SSTs were near normal
   • Expected conditions: Models are forecasting SST to maintain anomalously warm (0.5-1°C above average) around the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic
   • Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall

See table below with Climatological Normal/ Averages.