Seasonal Forecast: January to March 2021

Seasonal Forecast: January to March 2021

Influencing Factors

1) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific SSTs cooled from around average in May to between 1°C and 1.5°C below average; as such, moderate La Niña conditions are in place.

Model forecast and guidance: The models strongly favour La Niña to continue into JFM (with around 90-95% confidence) and, more likely than not, a return to ENSO neutral conditions by AMJ (50-65% confidence).

Expected impacts: La Niña tilts the odds to more frequent and more intense rainfall and milder temperatures for most of the region.

2) Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean

Recent observations: With the exception of the far northwest of the Caribbean, where SSTs still run about 1°C above average, SSTs along the shores of the Caribbean and in much of the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) have cooled to just above average.

Expected conditions: Most models maintain the observed SST anomalies around 1°C above average around the Bahamas, Belize and Cuba, and 0°C to +0.5°C across the Caribbean Sea and the TNA through AMJ.

Expected impacts: Continued warm SSTs in the northwestern Caribbean tends to contribute to above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals, reduced dry spell frequency and drought, but tilts the odds to a warmer than average early Heat Season starting April or May.


Models continue to forecast usual to more than usual rainfall totals for the first half of the dry season in the Lesser Antilles. A slight increase in the number of wet days is expected during the period with a higher than usual number of wet and very wet spells. However, flash flood potential is low as virtually no extreme wet spell is predicted. Drought is not a concern.


Night-time minimum and day-time maximum temperatures from January to March are likely to be comfortably cool and at most as warm as usual, as the Caribbean is now in its cool season. At higher elevations, some cold nights are possible until early March.





Canefield Airport

Douglas-Charles Airport

Accumulated Rainfall (30 years)


159.0 to 275.9mm

248.3 to 390.8mm

Wet days

28 to 46

43 to 59

7 day wet spell

0 to 3

1 to 2

7 day dry spell


0 to 2

Temperature (15 years)

Average Maximum

29.7 to 30.2°C

28.4 to 29.0°C


25.7 to 26.0 °C

25.3 to 25.7°C

Average Minimum

21.5 to 21.9°C

22.0 to 22.6°C